Dow Jones: 10/01/12

We resume our tracking U.S. markets after three weeks of truce. A truce during which they will have known only one direction: that of the increase. An increase that is accompanied by the crossing of important resistance levels, paving the way for a return on the highest of 2011. But is it that everything will go so easily?

Start with the Dow Jones. We left on December 20 after an impressive increase in session, which was validated on the support area of ​​support 11740/11770 and brought him back above the oblique red.
A brief pull back the next day would be sufficient for a further rise to the highest end of October at 12,285.

A week later horizontal consolidation, time to pass the holidays, the Dow Jones will take the path of rising up to 13,390, before another week of consolidation, marked by a brief pull back on 12285, and a timid bullish taken on Tuesday.

From a graphical point of view, since December 20, we have confirmed the crossing of the resistance of the downtrend channel red, a return above the median of the bullish channel light blue, and the crossing of the highest in October. Configuration clearly bullish, but not exaggerated, accompanied by a higher Bollinger still leaves upside potential.

The Dow should be able to continue to grow in the direction of the highest in 2011 that are no longer at less than 3%. But with volumes remaining low and high bits of the two last sessions of real increases that reflect a certain lack of enthusiasm, the market may need to pause a little stronger than the last two horizontal consolidations.

So behind a clearly favorable configuration, we remain cautious on the smooth running of the increase for the next few days, even if they are for the moment that warning signals. However, there is also room for a real session of gains.

The next sessions will be very interesting to properly evaluate the forces involved and the nature of the rise in recent weeks. Be monitored including the possible continued rise along the upper Bollinger, with a first test at the level of 12,600 points and the median orange, the last step before the horizontal 12,750 or the highest in April of 12,850.

But watch out for any return under 12,390, which should cause a return on 12285. Such a return would not be dramatic for the increase, especially as this threshold will soon be reinforced by the MM20 and the median blue. Even an impact on the next media on 12180/12190 is not necessarily problematic.

Below by cons, the configuration would deteriorate significantly, especially in and lose readability, but with the line of sight back on 11950, then the oblique red before eventually the horizontal area of ​​11740/11770.